The pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions made by world leaders in Paris in 2015 are known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
In its latest Emissions Gap Report, the UN says that these pledges will only bring about a third of the reduction in emissions required by 2030 to meet climate targets.
The report was published ahead of the UN climate conference in Bonn, Germany. The global gathering, known as COP23, aims to speed up climate action to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.
As things stand though, even full implementation of NDCs makes a temperature increase of at least 3C by 2100 very likely. The report finds that current Paris pledges make 2030 emissions likely to reach 11 to 13.5 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e) above the level needed to stay on course to the 2C target.
The UN’s report warns that if the emissions gap is not closed by 2030, it is extremely unlikely that the goal of holding global warming to well below 2C can still be reached.
Part of the Paris Agreement states that NDCs must be revised every five years. The UN’s report says that governments will need to deliver much stronger pledges to stand a chance of meeting the 2C target. The first opportunity for governments to formally submit revised pledges is in 2018.